Elm coin-flipping Research discussed in Economist Buttonwood article What's Past is Not Prologue sheds light on difficulty in choosing active managers

[The Economist] WHO wants mediocrity? That is what a lot of people say when the subject of index-tracking, or passive fund management, comes up. They would rather choose a fund manager (an active manager in the jargon) who tries to beat the market by picking the best stocks. It does sound like a good idea.

Read the full article on economist.com.