January 14, 2019
If George Costanza Were a Hedge Fund Manager
Investing is arguably about making predictions and placing bets accordingly – but there are some strategies where your predictions are correct, but you lose money anyway!
October 31, 2018
Reflections on the Mega Millions Lottery: Can a Lottery Ticket with Great Odds Still be a Bad Bet?
By Victor Haghani and James White Last week two of our favorite financial journalists – the WSJ’s Jason Zweig and Bloomberg’s Matt Levine – covered the Mega Millions lottery featuring […]
August 30, 2018
The Most Important Number Not Printed in the WSJ
By Victor Haghani and James White We are often asked for our estimate of the long-term return of the equity market. Our framework currently indicates 5.3% above inflation for global […]
April 6, 2018
A Penny Saved is Two Pennies Earned
By Victor Haghani and James White Most of us associate the maxim “A penny saved is a penny earned” with Benjamin Franklin, but what he actually said is far more […]
February 26, 2018
What Gamblers Can Teach the Buy-and-Hold Crowd
By Victor Haghani and James White The ongoing attack on stock-picking waged over the past 65 years now clearly has the upper hand. Early combatants included Markowitz, Samuelson, Sharpe, Fama, […]
November 26, 2017
A Brief History of Sharpe Ratio, and Beyond
By James White and Victor Haghani Early in the 1950s, academics and investors started proposing in earnest a variety of summary statistics to capture in a single number the quality […]
November 20, 2017
HHHHHHHHHHHH: Is there a message in there? Elm Research in Bloomberg Prophets
By Victor Haghani and James White The 12-month winning streak of the stock market through the end of October reminded me of a Friday afternoon on the Salomon trading floor […]
November 9, 2017
The Chemistry of 10% More
By Victor Haghani A few nights ago at the dinner table, I was ritually lamenting my unsuccessful efforts to lose a few pounds. My son Mark, now a high school […]
October 17, 2017
What Didn’t Happen on Black Monday 1987
By Victor Haghani “I don’t know.” That was the only answer I had to each of my dad’s questions. It was very dark as we wandered the streets near my […]
October 2, 2017
Market Multiple Mean-Reversion: Red Light or Red Herring? Elm research published on Bloomberg
By Victor Haghani and James White This post was first published on Bloomberg Prophets. There may be many reasons to worry about the current record price levels of U.S. equities, […]
August 7, 2017
When (if Ever) Has it Paid to Wait for a Stock Market Correction? Reviewing 115 Years of US Stock Market History
By Victor Haghani and James White A few weeks ago, one of our investors told us she had some cash that she wanted to add to her account with us, […]
March 8, 2017
What’s the Best Way to Get Invested in the Market?
By Victor Haghani and James White A few friends recently asked me how to go about putting more of their savings into the stock market. Is it better to jump […]
February 14, 2017
What Our Market Return Forecasts Really Mean: Equity Convexity and Investment Sizing
By Victor Haghani and James White The key issue in investments is estimating expected return. – Fischer Black Introduction You’re probably familiar, at least in passing, with the ‘convexity’ of […]
January 24, 2017
A Sharper Lens for Sizing Up Nickels and Steamrollers
By Victor Haghani and James White In a world of low rates and high stock prices, it’s natural that many investors are looking for ways to earn a good return […]
December 9, 2016
How much of a good thing is best for you?
By Victor Haghani and Andrew Morton A thought experiment: You can invest your wealth in only two assets: a risk-free one and a market portfolio of all public equities. Your […]
October 26, 2016
Lessons from Betting on a Biased Coin: Cool heads and cautionary tales
By Victor Haghani and Richard Dewey Introduction You’re invited to a talk by a former hedge fund manager who was a partner at a fund that famously flopped about twenty […]
March 23, 2016
The Unexpectedly High Expected Return of Global Equities
It seems just about everyone I talk to these days is underwhelmed by the long-term expected return of the global stock market. I too am more worried than normal about […]
August 21, 2015
Video: How risky is your stock market?
In this short video, we’ll discuss the five perspectives on stock market risk – and, more importantly, which is the most relevant for you and your various investing objectives.
August 21, 2015
Video: The most important number you won’t find in the Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street Journal publishes 10,000 different numbers every day…but you won’t find the one that’ll help you decide how much to save or how to invest your savings. In […]
