August 30, 2018
We are often asked for our estimate of the long-term return of the equity market. Our framework currently indicates 5.3% above inflation for global equities, which we know strikes many […]
April 6, 2018
Most of us associate the maxim “A penny saved is a penny earned” with Benjamin Franklin, but what he actually said is far more insightful: “A penny saved is two […]
February 26, 2018
The ongoing attack on stock-picking waged over the past 65 years now clearly has the upper hand. Early combatants included Markowitz, Samuelson, Sharpe, Fama, and Bogle, and as testament to […]
November 20, 2017
The 12-month winning streak of the stock market through the end of October reminded me of a Friday afternoon on the Salomon trading floor in early January 1987. The markets […]
November 9, 2017
A few nights ago at the dinner table, I was ritually lamenting my unsuccessful efforts to lose a few pounds. My son Mark, now a high school senior, posed a […]
October 17, 2017
“I don’t know.” That was the only answer I had to each of my dad’s questions. It was very dark as we wandered the streets near my Upper East Side […]
October 2, 2017
[Bloomberg] There may be many reasons to worry about the current high price level of U.S. equities, but mean-reversion of the market’s valuation to its historical average should not in […]
August 7, 2017
A few weeks ago, one of our investors told us she had some cash that she wanted to add to her account with us, but that she felt the market […]
March 8, 2017
A few friends recently asked me how to go about putting more of their savings into the stock market. Is it better to jump in all at once, to average-in […]
February 14, 2017
This is the third in our series on how expected return, risk and risk-aversion come together to determine how much investment risk is ‘right’ for each of us. (The other […]
January 24, 2017
I just wrote a paper with my friend James White which applies and extends the ideas of the paper Andy Morton and I published in December on Optimal Investment Sizing. […]
December 9, 2016
We spend most of our time trying to identify good investments and assemble them into an attractive portfolio. The question of how much to invest in that portfolio usually doesn’t get […]
October 26, 2016
What would you do if you were invited to play a game where you were given $25 and allowed to place bets for 30 minutes on a coin that you […]
March 23, 2016
It seems just about everyone I talk to these days is underwhelmed by the long-term expected return of the global stock market. I too am more worried than normal about […]
August 21, 2015
August 21, 2015
