February 26, 2018
The ongoing attack on stock-picking waged over the past 65 years now clearly has the upper hand. Early combatants included Markowitz, Samuelson, Sharpe, Fama, and Bogle, and as testament to […]
November 20, 2017
The 12-month winning streak of the stock market through the end of October reminded me of a Friday afternoon on the Salomon trading floor in early January 1987. The markets […]
October 2, 2017
[Bloomberg] There may be many reasons to worry about the current high price level of U.S. equities, but mean-reversion of the market’s valuation to its historical average should not in […]
August 7, 2017
A few weeks ago, one of our investors told us she had some cash that she wanted to add to her account with us, but that she felt the market […]
May 23, 2017
The research we conducted into how people bet on a computer-generated coin-flip they are told has a 60% chance of landing on heads was published in the Spring 2017 edition […]
April 11, 2017
Thank you to the 702 people who read and interacted with our note exploring when past returns are indicative of future returns. We received so much thought-provoking feedback that we […]
March 8, 2017
A few friends recently asked me how to go about putting more of their savings into the stock market. Is it better to jump in all at once, to average-in […]
December 9, 2016
We spend most of our time trying to identify good investments and assemble them into an attractive portfolio. The question of how much to invest in that portfolio usually doesn’t get […]
May 27, 2016
While past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns, we draw comfort from knowing that the way we invest has done well over the past nearly one hundred years. […]
March 23, 2016
It seems just about everyone I talk to these days is underwhelmed by the long-term expected return of the global stock market. I too am more worried than normal about […]
January 26, 2016
We just had a research paper accepted in SSRN’s elibrary. Click here for the abstract and the full 10 page paper. Here’s a snippet and some of our key conclusions: […]
July 18, 2015
Assets invested in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) just broke through the $3 trillion milestone, 25 years since their birth. At Elm Partners we use ETFs extensively, making up about 40% […]
