July 16, 2019
Smart Beta: The Good, the Bad, and the Muddy
By James White and Victor Haghani You can download a PDF copy of this report here. Factor investing is one of the hottest areas in modern finance. It has spawned […]
November 20, 2017
HHHHHHHHHHHH: Is there a message in there? Elm Research in Bloomberg Prophets
By Victor Haghani and James White The 12-month winning streak of the stock market through the end of October reminded me of a Friday afternoon on the Salomon trading floor […]
October 2, 2017
Market Multiple Mean-Reversion: Red Light or Red Herring? Elm research published on Bloomberg
From Bloomberg: There may be many reasons to worry about the current high price level of U.S. equities, but mean-reversion of the market’s valuation to its historical average should not […]
August 7, 2017
When (if Ever) Has it Paid to Wait for a Stock Market Correction? Reviewing 115 Years of US Stock Market History
By Victor Haghani and James White A few weeks ago, one of our investors told us she had some cash that she wanted to add to her account with us, […]
May 23, 2017
Our Coin Flipping Research in the Journal of Portfolio Management
The research we conducted into how people bet on a computer-generated coin-flip they are told has a 60% chance of landing on heads was published in the Spring 2017 edition […]
April 11, 2017
What’s Past is NOT Prologue
By James White, Jeff Rosenbluth and Victor Haghani Thank you to the 702 people who read and interacted with our note exploring when past returns are indicative of future returns. […]
March 8, 2017
What’s the Best Way to Get Invested in the Market?
By Victor Haghani and James White A few friends recently asked me how to go about putting more of their savings into the stock market. Is it better to jump […]
December 9, 2016
How much of a good thing is best for you?
We spend most of our time trying to identify good investments and assemble them into an attractive portfolio. The question of how much to invest in that portfolio usually doesn’t get […]
May 27, 2016
Elm’s strategy in The Journal of Portfolio Management
While past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns, we draw comfort from knowing that the way we invest has done well over the past nearly one hundred years. […]
March 23, 2016
The Unexpectedly High Expected Return of Global Equities
It seems just about everyone I talk to these days is underwhelmed by the long-term expected return of the global stock market. I too am more worried than normal about […]
January 26, 2016
Return chasing can be hazardous to your wealth
We just had a research paper accepted in SSRN’s elibrary. Click here for the abstract and the full 10 page paper. Here’s a snippet and some of our key conclusions: […]
July 18, 2015
ETFs: Better Than Mutual Funds for Long Term Investors too?
Assets invested in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) just broke through the $3 trillion milestone, 25 years since their birth. At Elm Partners we use ETFs extensively, making up about 40% […]
March 8, 2013
Vic’s TEDx talk: Where are all the Billionaires? And why should we care?
In this TEDx talk, (which has over 160,000 views as of December 2018,) I use the puzzle of the missing billionaires to explore how and why most investors fail to capture […]