Negative Interest Rates and the Perpetuity Paradox
By Victor Haghani and James White “We are actively competing with nations who openly cut interest rates so that now many are actually getting paid when they pay off their […]
Home Biased: A Case for More Indexing
“Home Bias” refers to the trend of investing more heavily in one’s own domestic market than necessary. The question is: if everyone is doing it, does all of that bias cancel itself out?
Smart Beta: The Good, the Bad, and the Muddy
Smart Beta is one of the hottest topics in finance, and everyone wants to know: is the stock market largely efficient, or are there inefficiencies that investors can profit from?
A Couple of Interviews with James & Victor
Catch up with James and Victor as they discuss Elm’s investment philosophy with Fintech Daily’s Efi Pylarinou and Mark Adelson of the Institutional Investors Journal.
If George Costanza Were a Hedge Fund Manager
Investing is arguably about making predictions and placing bets accordingly – but there are some strategies where your predictions are correct, but you lose money anyway!
Introducing Elm’s All-Equity Portfolios at Fidelity
By Victor Haghani and James White Encouraged by some of our investors, we are introducing an All-Equity portfolio to our lineup of Separately Managed Account (SMA) programs at Fidelity. Elm’s […]
Reflections on the Mega Millions Lottery: Can a Lottery Ticket with Great Odds Still be a Bad Bet?
By Victor Haghani and James White Last week two of our favorite financial journalists – the WSJ’s Jason Zweig and Bloomberg’s Matt Levine – covered the Mega Millions lottery featuring […]
The Annuity Puzzle: How Big is the Free Lunch Being Left on the Table?
By Victor Haghani and James White The looming Savings Crisis is usually attributed to people not saving enough and making poor investment decisions with what they do save. We believe […]
Tax Efficiency and Dynamic Asset Allocation: Can We Have Our Cake and Eat It Too?
By Victor Haghani and James White We are frequently asked about the tax efficiency of our dynamic value-and-momentum investment approach. The concern is often that with estimated turnover of 50% […]
Is Vanguard More Rolls Royce, or Hyundai?
By Victor Haghani and James White “What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly.” – Thomas Paine, 1776 A physician thinking about investing with Elm asked us: “If I […]
Sensible Investing in a Nutshell: Robin Powell, The Evidence-Based Investor, interviews Victor
In this five-minute video Robin Powell, aka the Evidence-Based Investor, in his “journey to uncover the truth behind investing” interviews Victor.They discuss the meaning of the Puzzle of the Missing […]
US Tax Reform Leaves Even Less of the Pie for Individual Investors in Alternatives
By Victor Haghani and James White Let me tell you how it will be There’s one for you, nineteen for me ‘Cause I’m the taxman, yeah, I’m the taxman Should […]
A Brainteaser Double-Feature for the Holidays
By Victor Haghani and James White Here are two little puzzles that we discussed at an Elm dinner last week in London, at our favorite local Chinese restaurant. Our guests […]
A Brief History of Sharpe Ratio, and Beyond
By James White and Victor Haghani Early in the 1950s, academics and investors started proposing in earnest a variety of summary statistics to capture in a single number the quality […]
Elm in the Wall Street Journal
Wall Street Journal writer Sam Goldfarb writes about Elm Partners and Victor for the cover of the B section on November 11th. Since 2011, Mr Haghani has run, from a […]
What Didn’t Happen on Black Monday 1987
By Victor Haghani “I don’t know.” That was the only answer I had to each of my dad’s questions. It was very dark as we wandered the streets near my […]
Market Multiple Mean-Reversion: Red Light or Red Herring? Elm research published on Bloomberg
By Victor Haghani and James White This post was first published on Bloomberg Prophets. There may be many reasons to worry about the current record price levels of U.S. equities, […]
Elm coin-flipping Research discussed in Economist Buttonwood article What's Past is Not Prologue sheds light on difficulty in choosing active managers
From The Economist: WHO wants mediocrity? That is what a lot of people say when the subject of index-tracking, or passive fund management, comes up. They would rather choose a […]
How Much Should the Tax Tail Wag the Asset Allocation Dog? A Rule-of-Thumb for Weighing Capital Gains Taxes in Portfolio Rebalancing Decisions
By Victor Haghani and James White For investors who feel the expected return of equities isn’t as attractive today as it was 5 to 10 years ago when PEs were […]
When (if Ever) Has it Paid to Wait for a Stock Market Correction? Reviewing 115 Years of US Stock Market History
By Victor Haghani and James White A few weeks ago, one of our investors told us she had some cash that she wanted to add to her account with us, […]
Financial Times full page article about Elm (and Victor)
“Mr. Haghani has been on an intellectual journey that, in many ways, mirrors the evolution and central debates of the modern investment industry…His mission is supported by research he and […]
What’s the Best Way to Get Invested in the Market?
By Victor Haghani and James White A few friends recently asked me how to go about putting more of their savings into the stock market. Is it better to jump […]
What Our Market Return Forecasts Really Mean: Equity Convexity and Investment Sizing
By Victor Haghani and James White The key issue in investments is estimating expected return. – Fischer Black Introduction You’re probably familiar, at least in passing, with the ‘convexity’ of […]
Tax-Efficient Investing for US Citizens Long-Term Resident in the UK
By Victor Haghani US citizens who have been living in the UK for a long time, like me, are facing significant changes in how we will be taxed in the […]
Vic’s TEDx Talk: Quitting is For Winners
My academic and early on-the-job training at Salomon Brothers ingrained in me a basic principle of value investing: when an investment becomes cheaper, try to add to your position. The […]
How much of a good thing is best for you?
By Victor Haghani and Andrew Morton A thought experiment: You can invest your wealth in only two assets: a risk-free one and a market portfolio of all public equities. Your […]
What does family planning have to do with investing?
We recently launched a new sub-section of our website, Elm Labs, as a place to experiment with interactive research and educational tools. We launched with a simple (yet tricky) family […]
Fees or Performance?
In a recent interview on Bloomberg TV, I was asked the question: “Should investors focus on fees or performance?” My answer was that, while in the end it’s all about […]
What’s all the hoopla? Passive indexers are still a rare breed
We’ve just passed the 40th anniversary of the first index fund (Vanguard’s, naturally) and everyone’s talking about how passive indexing is taking over the world. That may be a good […]
What’s up with REITs?
By Victor Haghani REITs have returned 17% in 2016, outperforming the S&P500 by 9%. There are several plausible explanations for REITs’ recent strength, such as this year’s 0.75% drop in […]
Elm’s strategy in The Journal of Portfolio Management
While past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns, we draw comfort from knowing that the way we invest has done well over the past nearly one hundred years. […]
RealVisionTV: An Interview With Victor Haghani (8 min video)
Victor sat down with Raoul Pal, 25 year market veteran and founder of RealVisionTV to discuss his career, his thoughts on investing, and how Elm came to be. Watch this […]
Return chasing can be hazardous to your wealth
By Victor Haghani and Samantha McBride Introduction A thriving investment manager started his presentation to a roomful of potential investors, saying: “Before I tell you what I do, I’m going […]
In The News: Elm Launches Robo Portfolio Solution
This week we launched our online signup for investment into our Separately Managed Accounts. You can now invest with us here. The full press release is below. Elm Partners today […]
Infographic: How much do taxes matter in investing?
The passive vs active investing debate usually centers on low vs high fees and the plausibility of superior investment performance. For many taxable investors, taxes can matter more than either […]
Video: How risky is your stock market?
In this short video, we’ll discuss the five perspectives on stock market risk – and, more importantly, which is the most relevant for you and your various investing objectives.
Revisiting the Expected Return of the Stock Market
A few months ago we posted a short video, titled ‘The Most Important Number You Won’t Find in the Wall Street Journal,’ which described a simple way to forecast the […]
Our Asset Allocation Methodology
Each of our strategies follows our rules-based asset allocation methodology, an approach we call Active Index Investing®. This note describes in detail the three main components of this approach: the […]