Do US Industry-Sector Weights Explain the Higher Valuation of US vs non-US Equities?
By Victor Haghani and James White Global equity market Investors are acutely aware of the tremendous outperformance of US equities versus non-US equities over the past ten years, as illustrated […]
A Conversation with NYU Professor Aswath Damodaran
April 23, 2019 NYC Victor recently sat down with NYU Professor Aswath Damodaran to hear his views on some of the most passionately debated topics in investing today, from the […]
When it Pays to Pay Capital Gains
By Victor Haghani, Lawrence Hilibrand and James White US taxable investors know the importance of managing their investments tax-efficiently. A standard approach to the management of capital gains and losses […]
When They Won’t Accept That You Really Don’t Know, Tell Them About Mo
By Victor Haghani and James White Most of us working in the finance industry are used to being regularly called on to predict where different assets are heading. We figure […]
Reflections on the Mega Millions Lottery: Can a Lottery Ticket with Great Odds Still be a Bad Bet?
By Victor Haghani and James White Last week two of our favorite financial journalists – the WSJ’s Jason Zweig and Bloomberg’s Matt Levine – covered the Mega Millions lottery featuring […]
Measuring the Fabric of Felicity
By Victor Haghani and James White We steer our financial course through life choosing how much to spend and how to invest what’s left, periodically updating our choices as circumstances […]
The Most Important Number Not Printed in the WSJ
By Victor Haghani and James White We are often asked for our estimate of the long-term return of the equity market. Our framework currently indicates 5.3% above inflation for global […]
A Penny Saved is Two Pennies Earned
By Victor Haghani and James White Most of us associate the maxim “A penny saved is a penny earned” with Benjamin Franklin, but what he actually said is far more […]
Sensible Investing in a Nutshell: Robin Powell, The Evidence-Based Investor, interviews Victor
In this five-minute video Robin Powell, aka the Evidence-Based Investor, in his “journey to uncover the truth behind investing” interviews Victor.They discuss the meaning of the Puzzle of the Missing […]
What Gamblers Can Teach the Buy-and-Hold Crowd
By Victor Haghani and James White The ongoing attack on stock-picking waged over the past 65 years now clearly has the upper hand. Early combatants included Markowitz, Samuelson, Sharpe, Fama, […]
New Year, New CEO, New Home James White takes over as CEO
The New Year brings two exciting developments at Elm. The first is that James White, who has been working with Elm for the past year, is taking on the role […]
Some Clarity on Risk Parity
In our ongoing writing on the topic of investment sizing and portfolio choice, we recently published two articles that discuss the use of Sharpe Ratio in building portfolios with the […]
HHHHHHHHHHHH: Is there a message in there? Elm Research in Bloomberg Prophets
By Victor Haghani and James White The 12-month winning streak of the stock market through the end of October reminded me of a Friday afternoon on the Salomon trading floor […]
The Chemistry of 10% More
By Victor Haghani A few nights ago at the dinner table, I was ritually lamenting my unsuccessful efforts to lose a few pounds. My son Mark, now a high school […]
Market Multiple Mean-Reversion: Red Light or Red Herring? Elm research published on Bloomberg
From Bloomberg: There may be many reasons to worry about the current high price level of U.S. equities, but mean-reversion of the market’s valuation to its historical average should not […]
Elm coin-flipping Research discussed in Economist Buttonwood article What's Past is Not Prologue sheds light on difficulty in choosing active managers
From The Economist: WHO wants mediocrity? That is what a lot of people say when the subject of index-tracking, or passive fund management, comes up. They would rather choose a […]
How Much Should the Tax Tail Wag the Asset Allocation Dog? A Rule-of-Thumb for Weighing Capital Gains Taxes in Portfolio Rebalancing Decisions
By Victor Haghani and James White For investors who feel the expected return of equities isn’t as attractive today as it was 5 to 10 years ago when PEs were […]
When (if Ever) Has it Paid to Wait for a Stock Market Correction? Reviewing 115 Years of US Stock Market History
By Victor Haghani and James White A few weeks ago, one of our investors told us she had some cash that she wanted to add to her account with us, […]
Financial Times full page article about Elm (and Victor)
“Mr. Haghani has been on an intellectual journey that, in many ways, mirrors the evolution and central debates of the modern investment industry…His mission is supported by research he and […]
What’s the Best Way to Get Invested in the Market?
By Victor Haghani and James White A few friends recently asked me how to go about putting more of their savings into the stock market. Is it better to jump […]
What Our Market Return Forecasts Really Mean: Equity Convexity and Investment Sizing
By Victor Haghani and James White The key issue in investments is estimating expected return. – Fischer Black Introduction You’re probably familiar, at least in passing, with the ‘convexity’ of […]
Tax-Efficient Investing for US Citizens Long-Term Resident in the UK
By Victor Haghani US citizens who have been living in the UK for a long time, like me, are facing significant changes in how we will be taxed in the […]
Vic’s TEDx Talk: Quitting is For Winners
My academic and early on-the-job training at Salomon Brothers ingrained in me a basic principle of value investing: when an investment becomes cheaper, try to add to your position. The […]
How much of a good thing is best for you?
By Victor Haghani and Andrew Morton A thought experiment: You can invest your wealth in only two assets: a risk-free one and a market portfolio of all public equities. Your […]
What does family planning have to do with investing?
We recently launched a new sub-section of our website, Elm Labs, as a place to experiment with interactive research and educational tools. We launched with a simple (yet tricky) family […]
Fees or Performance?
In a recent interview on Bloomberg TV, I was asked the question: “Should investors focus on fees or performance?” My answer was that, while in the end it’s all about […]
What’s all the hoopla? Passive indexers are still a rare breed
We’ve just passed the 40th anniversary of the first index fund (Vanguard’s, naturally) and everyone’s talking about how passive indexing is taking over the world. That may be a good […]
What’s up with REITs?
By Victor Haghani REITs have returned 17% in 2016, outperforming the S&P500 by 9%. There are several plausible explanations for REITs’ recent strength, such as this year’s 0.75% drop in […]
Elm’s strategy in The Journal of Portfolio Management
While past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns, we draw comfort from knowing that the way we invest has done well over the past nearly one hundred years. […]
RealVisionTV: An Interview With Victor Haghani (8 min video)
Victor sat down with Raoul Pal, 25 year market veteran and founder of RealVisionTV to discuss his career, his thoughts on investing, and how Elm came to be. Watch this […]
Return chasing can be hazardous to your wealth
By Victor Haghani and Samantha McBride Introduction A thriving investment manager started his presentation to a roomful of potential investors, saying: “Before I tell you what I do, I’m going […]
In The News: Elm Launches Robo Portfolio Solution
This week we launched our online signup for investment into our Separately Managed Accounts. You can now invest with us here. The full press release is below. Elm Partners today […]
Infographic: How much do taxes matter in investing?
The passive vs active investing debate usually centers on low vs high fees and the plausibility of superior investment performance. For many taxable investors, taxes can matter more than either […]
Video: How risky is your stock market?
In this short video, we’ll discuss the five perspectives on stock market risk – and, more importantly, which is the most relevant for you and your various investing objectives.
Revisiting the Expected Return of the Stock Market
A few months ago we posted a short video, titled ‘The Most Important Number You Won’t Find in the Wall Street Journal,’ which described a simple way to forecast the […]
Our Asset Allocation Methodology
Each of our strategies follows our rules-based asset allocation methodology, an approach we call Active Index Investing®. This note describes in detail the three main components of this approach: the […]