If George Costanza Were a Hedge Fund Manager
By Victor Haghani and James White It’s only a small over-simplification to say that investing is about predicting how things will turn out in the future, and placing your bets […]
Introducing Elm’s All-Equity Portfolios at Fidelity
By Victor Haghani and James White Encouraged by some of our investors, we are introducing an All-Equity portfolio to our lineup of Separately Managed Account (SMA) programs at Fidelity. Elm’s […]
Reflections on the Mega Millions Lottery: Can a Lottery Ticket with Great Odds Still be a Bad Bet?
By Victor Haghani and James White Last week two of our favorite financial journalists – the WSJ’s Jason Zweig and Bloomberg’s Matt Levine – covered the Mega Millions lottery featuring […]
The Annuity Puzzle: How Big is the Free Lunch Being Left on the Table?
The looming Savings Crisis is usually attributed to people not saving enough and making poor investment decisions with what they do save. We believe there’s another major culprit, which is […]
Tax Efficiency and Dynamic Asset Allocation: Can We Have Our Cake and Eat It Too?
We are frequently asked about the tax efficiency of our dynamic value-and-momentum investment approach. The concern is often that with estimated turnover of 50% – 100% per year, returns might […]
Is Vanguard More Rolls Royce, or Hyundai?
“What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly.” – Thomas Paine, 1776 A physician thinking about investing with Elm asked us: “If I hurt my knee, I’m going to […]
Sensible Investing in a Nutshell: Robin Powell, The Evidence-Based Investor, interviews Victor
In this five-minute video Robin Powell, aka the Evidence-Based Investor, in his “journey to uncover the truth behind investing” interviews Victor. They discuss the meaning of the Puzzle of the […]
US Tax Reform Leaves Even Less of the Pie for Individual Investors in Alternatives
Let me tell you how it will be There’s one for you, nineteen for me ‘Cause I’m the taxman, yeah, I’m the taxman Should five per cent appear too small […]
A Brainteaser Double-Feature for the Holidays
Here are two little puzzles that we discussed at an Elm dinner last week in London, at our favorite local Chinese restaurant. Our guests were sufficiently tickled that we thought […]
HHHHHHHHHHHH: Is there a message in there? Elm Research in Bloomberg Prophets
The 12-month winning streak of the stock market through the end of October reminded me of a Friday afternoon on the Salomon trading floor in early January 1987. The markets […]
The Chemistry of 10% More
A few nights ago at the dinner table, I was ritually lamenting my unsuccessful efforts to lose a few pounds. My son Mark, now a high school senior, posed a […]
Market Multiple Mean-Reversion: Red Light or Red Herring? Elm research published on Bloomberg
[Bloomberg] There may be many reasons to worry about the current high price level of U.S. equities, but mean-reversion of the market’s valuation to its historical average should not in […]
Elm coin-flipping Research discussed in Economist Buttonwood article What's Past is Not Prologue sheds light on difficulty in choosing active managers
[The Economist] WHO wants mediocrity? That is what a lot of people say when the subject of index-tracking, or passive fund management, comes up. They would rather choose a fund […]
How Much Should the Tax Tail Wag the Asset Allocation Dog? A Rule-of-Thumb for Weighing Capital Gains Taxes in Portfolio Rebalancing Decisions
For investors who feel the expected return of equities isn’t as attractive today as it was 5 to 10 years ago when PEs were lower, it’s natural to be thinking […]
When (if Ever) Has it Paid to Wait for a Stock Market Correction? Reviewing 115 Years of US Stock Market History
A few weeks ago, one of our investors told us she had some cash that she wanted to add to her account with us, but that she felt the market […]
Financial Times full page article about Elm (and Victor)
“Mr. Haghani has been on an intellectual journey that, in many ways, mirrors the evolution and central debates of the modern investment industry…His mission is supported by research he and […]
What’s the Best Way to Get Invested in the Market?
A few friends recently asked me how to go about putting more of their savings into the stock market. Is it better to jump in all at once, to average-in […]
Tax-Efficient Investing for US Citizens Long-Term Resident in the UK
US citizens who have been living in the UK for a long time, like me, are facing significant changes in how we will be taxed in the UK. Unfortunately, we […]
Vic’s TEDx Talk: Quitting is For Winners
My academic and early on-the-job training at Salomon Brothers ingrained in me a basic principle of value investing: when an investment becomes cheaper, try to add to your position. The […]
How much of a good thing is best for you?
We spend most of our time trying to identify good investments and assemble them into an attractive portfolio. The question of how much to invest in that portfolio usually doesn’t get […]
What does family planning have to do with investing?
We recently launched a new sub-section of our website, Elm Labs, as a place to experiment with interactive research and educational tools. We launched with a simple (yet tricky) family […]
Fees or Performance?
In a recent interview on Bloomberg TV, I was asked the question: “Should investors focus on fees or performance?” My answer was that, while in the end it’s all about […]
What’s all the hoopla? Passive indexers are still a rare breed
We’ve just passed the 40th anniversary of the first index fund (Vanguard’s, naturally) and everyone’s talking about how passive indexing is taking over the world. That may be a good […]
What’s up with REITs?
REITs have returned 17% in 2016, outperforming the S&P500 by 9%. There are several plausible explanations for REITs’ recent strength, such as this year’s 0.75% drop in long-term interest rates. […]
Elm’s strategy in The Journal of Portfolio Management
While past performance is not necessarily indicative of future returns, we draw comfort from knowing that the way we invest has done well over the past nearly one hundred years. […]
RealVisionTV: An Interview With Victor Haghani (8 min video)
Victor sat down with Raoul Pal, 25 year market veteran and founder of RealVisionTV to discuss his career, his thoughts on investing, and how Elm came to be. Watch this […]
Return chasing can be hazardous to your wealth
We just had a research paper accepted in SSRN’s elibrary. Click here for the abstract and the full 10 page paper. Here’s a snippet and some of our key conclusions: […]
In The News: Elm Launches Robo Portfolio Solution
This week we launched our online signup for investment into our Separately Managed Account’s. You can now invest with us here. The full press release is below. Elm Partners today […]
Infographic: How much do taxes matter in investing?
The passive vs active investing debate usually centers on low vs high fees and the plausibility of superior investment performance. For many taxable investors, taxes can matter more than either […]
Revisiting the Expected Return of the Stock Market
A few months ago we posted a short video, titled ‘The Most Important Number You Won’t Find in the Wall Street Journal,’ which described a simple way to forecast the […]
Our Asset Allocation Methodology
Each of our strategies follows our rules-based asset allocation methodology, an approach we call Active Index Investing®. This note describes in detail the three main components of this approach: the […]